TREATMENT THRESHOLDS FOR THE GLASSY-WINGED SHARPSHOOTER BASED ON THE LOCAL EPIDEMIOLOGY OF PIERCES DISEASE SPREAD (A STAGE-STRUCTURED EPIDEMIC MODEL)

• Author(s): Perring, Thomas; Allen, Jon; Farrar, Charles; Krell, Rayda; Park, Yong-Lak;
• Abstract: The conditions for the successful invasion of a vineyard by Pierces disease (PD) are not well understood. To help integrate what knowledge we do have and indicate areas where research is needed we are developing a more biologically detailed model than has been previously available. Fortunately there is a large ensemble of literature from epidemiology regarding this problem, and in addition, much has been done toward solving the kinds of equations that arise in this work in terms of both mathematics and software. Here we outline very briefly our progress to date, and the ways in which these sorts of models can help us to better manage and understand the PD system. Here we describe a system of delay equations for modeling the dynamics of PD vectored by the glassy-winged sharpshooter (GWSS). We will analyze and study this system to derive threshold conditions for the invasion of a vineyard by PD and GWSS. Thresholds for disease outbreaks are common among epidemiological systems and a large literature exists on this subject. In addition new software (not commercially released yet) has been made available to us for solving these kinds of systems. We will attempt to use our model system to bring this methodology to the PD/GWSS problem and find new ways of controlling this disease.
• Publication Date: Dec 2004
• Journal: 2004 Pierce's Disease Research Symposium